Tuesday, October 10, 2006

A Brilliant (Football) Weekend

So I went 12-2 straight up and 9-3-2 againt the spread. That 9-3-2 is damn impressive if I do say so myself. Lets say you bet $10000 on every game this past weekend, which of course is a total bet of $140,000. If you did this with my picks, you came home with $200,000. Thats a mere 43% net profit in a weekend.

Cha-ching folks

For some perspective, people who are "in the know" who bet football, bet college not the pros cause Vegas cant scout every game in college like they can the pros. This inability to in-depth scout every college football game leaves betting lines that knowledgable people know are easy money. The shear number of college games just doesnt allow for Vegas to scout properly. Conversly, there are never more than 16 NFL games, all of which are dissected minute to minute by Vegas, other teams, scouts, fans, and the media. This way Vegas is much better at putting out lines that people think are easy money, but really arent. Which is why last year was the first year EVER that the bettors beat Vegas in NFL games.

Well thats 2 weeks in a row that I beat Vegas this year, and not just by 1 game. 9-3-2 is fucking impressive. Case in point, sportsline.com (run by CBS) has "experts" that pick against the spread for every game, every week. Here is how they are doing http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks

As you can see I did better than their best, and on the season I am 20-15-3. This means 39% of my picks are wrong. Sportsline's best on the season is wrong 43% of the time. With 512 total games in the season, that 4% is significant. Again that is their best. Hope I can keep it up year long, especially since I have an error rate of only 29% the last 2 weeks (since I have started picking every game Vegas style).

Cha-ching!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

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